413 Elm St

Thayer, IL 62689

$77,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $155/mo
• Annual: $1,856/yr
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $21,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($536 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#643 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $78k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.