413 Elm St · Thayer, IL 62689

$77,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1950 10,500 sqft lot $80/sqft · 11% below area Est $88k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location With Fenced Yard. Nice House With A Little Work On The Inside. Priced To Sell

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Fenced in backyard
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED FURNACE
• UPDATED A/C
• EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area / building area: 966

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1950
• Construction: Shingle roof; Not new construction; Crawl space / no finished basement
• Exterior features: Corner, level lot; Fenced yard; Replacement windows; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level; each has egress windows)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and foyer; Luxury vinyl plank in the kitchen; Vinyl in the laundry room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating; Gas water heater; High-efficiency air conditioning and heating
• Interior features: Cable available; Ceiling fan(s); High-speed internet; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#643 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($536 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $78k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,175 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,548
• List price: $77,500
• Delta: -11.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 N Cleveland	0.10mi	2/1.0	900 (-7%)	17mo	$19,900	$22	70
101 E Teak St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,026 (+6%)	11mo	$99,000	$96	64
306 W Elm St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,010 (+5%)	19mo	$90,000	$89	50
411 E Teak St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+14%)	22mo	$57,500	$52	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $19,186
• Equity at exit: $34,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $54,512
• Equity at exit: $53,704

Cash invested: $21,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62689

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $77,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,375
• Closing costs: $2,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 E Elm St Thayer, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	44d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,500 Under Contract 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,500 Under Contract 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,500 Under Contract 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $77,500 Under Contract 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,500 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,500 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,500 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $77,500 Active 326-char remark
17. 1999-06-09
    soldstatus $33,900 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Great Location With Fenced Yard. Nice House With A Little Work On The Inside. Priced To Sell

18. 1999-06-09
    soldstatus $34,000

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Great Location With Fenced Yard. Nice House With A Little Work On The Inside. Priced To Sell

19. 1999-01-07
    listed $31,900 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Great Location With Fenced Yard. Nice House With A Little Work On The Inside. Priced To Sell

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,341
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,255
• Taxable income: $647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Thayer

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #13143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thayer, IL
• Population (ZIP): 627

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+142.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $77,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-09 Sold (MLS) $33,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-07 Listed $31,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.