3945 Hemlock Pl

Bethlehem, PA 18017

$409,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,731 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-494/mo
• Annual: $-5,932/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $114,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hanover El Sch (math 72% / reading 87%, grade A, #49 of 1,518 statewide, top 4%, 226 students, 16% FRL); Nitschmann Ms (math 20% / reading 44%, grade F, #362 of 512 statewide, top 71%, 781 students, 48% FRL); Liberty Hs (math 36% / reading 10%, grade F, #382 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 2,640 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.