3945 Hemlock Pl · Bethlehem, PA 18017

$409,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 0.39 ac lot $237/sqft · 7% below area Est $505k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained bi-level home situated on a prime corner lot in one of Hanover Township’s most desirable neighborhoods! Step into a welcoming vaulted ceiling foyer that leads to a spacious living room featuring gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into the dining area and fully equipped kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just beyond, a bright four-season sunroom overlooks the backyard and offers year-round enjoyment, with direct access to the outdoor space ideal for gatherings and play. The main level also features three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The lower level boasts a massive family room with a cozy fireplace and durable vinyl flooring, a fourth bedroom ideal for guests or a home office, a convenient laundry room, and a half bath. An additional sunroom complete with a hot tub creates the perfect private retreat. Enjoy summer evenings on the expansive (18 x 14) patio, perfect for barbecues and outdoor entertaining. Move-in ready and thoughtfully designed for comfort and functionality, this home offers space, versatility, and exceptional value. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major routes—with the added benefit of low taxes. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity, Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Massive family room
• Cozy fireplace
• Four-season sunroom

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• VAULTED CEILING FOYER
• FOUR-SEASON SUNROOM
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hanover El Sch (math 72% / reading 87%, grade A, #49 of 1,518 statewide, top 4%, 226 students, 16% FRL); Nitschmann Ms (math 20% / reading 44%, grade F, #362 of 512 statewide, top 71%, 781 students, 48% FRL); Liberty Hs (math 36% / reading 10%, grade F, #382 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 2,640 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,027 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,632
• List price: $409,900
• Delta: -18.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3945 Hemlock Pl	0.00mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,976 (+14%)	0mo	$410,000	$207	71
4216 Greenfield Rd	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	15mo	$430,000	$244	62
3920 Hemlock Pl	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-11%)	18mo	$425,000	$277	56
5444 Hale Ave	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,774 (+2%)	8mo	$526,000	$297	50
4040 Maria Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-4%)	14mo	$490,400	$297	49
1495 Stafore Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+7%)	21mo	$450,000	$242	35
1369 Woodland Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-13%)	19mo	$440,000	$293	29
5449 Hale Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+14%)	7mo	$500,000	$254	28
1285 Stafore Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,988 (+15%)	6mo	$580,000	$292	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-99,056
• Equity at exit: $61,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-131,484
• Equity at exit: $35,441

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18017

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,203/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,486

Max offer price $322,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-262	-5% $-378	+0% $-494	+5% $-610	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-720	-5% $-607	+0% $-494	+5% $-381	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-288	-0.5pp $-390	base $-494	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1160 Brentwood Ave Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.5	1712	$3,200	$1.87	4d	1	0.12mi
4613 Cheryl Dr Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	15d	1	0.76mi
4747 Cheryl Dr Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	23d	1	0.78mi
5143 Cheryl Dr Unit 5143 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	4d	1	0.84mi
1590 Winthrop Ave Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,550	$1.38	45d	1	1.04mi
3418 Park Pl Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1922	$2,600	$1.35	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 1312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1312 chars)

   Beautifully maintained bi-level home situated on a prime corner lot in one of Hanover Township’s most desirable neighborhoods! Step into a welcoming vaulted ceiling foyer that leads to a spacious living room featuring gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into the dining area and fully equipped kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just beyond, a bright four-season sunroom overlooks the backyard and offers year-round enjoyment, with direct access to the outdoor space ideal for gatherings and play. The main level also features three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The lower level boasts a massive family room with a cozy fireplace and durable vinyl flooring, a fourth bedroom ideal for guests or a home office, a convenient laundry room, and a half bath. An additional sunroom complete with a hot tub creates the perfect private retreat. Enjoy summer evenings on the expansive (18 x 14) patio, perfect for barbecues and outdoor entertaining. Move-in ready and thoughtfully designed for comfort and functionality, this home offers space, versatility, and exceptional value. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major routes—with the added benefit of low taxes. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity, Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-27
   price $409,900 1312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1312 chars)

   Beautifully maintained bi-level home situated on a prime corner lot in one of Hanover Township’s most desirable neighborhoods! Step into a welcoming vaulted ceiling foyer that leads to a spacious living room featuring gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into the dining area and fully equipped kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just beyond, a bright four-season sunroom overlooks the backyard and offers year-round enjoyment, with direct access to the outdoor space ideal for gatherings and play. The main level also features three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The lower level boasts a massive family room with a cozy fireplace and durable vinyl flooring, a fourth bedroom ideal for guests or a home office, a convenient laundry room, and a half bath. An additional sunroom complete with a hot tub creates the perfect private retreat. Enjoy summer evenings on the expansive (18 x 14) patio, perfect for barbecues and outdoor entertaining. Move-in ready and thoughtfully designed for comfort and functionality, this home offers space, versatility, and exceptional value. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major routes—with the added benefit of low taxes. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity, Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-03-30
   listed $419,900 Active 1312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1312 chars)

   Beautifully maintained bi-level home situated on a prime corner lot in one of Hanover Township’s most desirable neighborhoods! Step into a welcoming vaulted ceiling foyer that leads to a spacious living room featuring gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into the dining area and fully equipped kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just beyond, a bright four-season sunroom overlooks the backyard and offers year-round enjoyment, with direct access to the outdoor space ideal for gatherings and play. The main level also features three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The lower level boasts a massive family room with a cozy fireplace and durable vinyl flooring, a fourth bedroom ideal for guests or a home office, a convenient laundry room, and a half bath. An additional sunroom complete with a hot tub creates the perfect private retreat. Enjoy summer evenings on the expansive (18 x 14) patio, perfect for barbecues and outdoor entertaining. Move-in ready and thoughtfully designed for comfort and functionality, this home offers space, versatility, and exceptional value. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major routes—with the added benefit of low taxes. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity, Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2023-02-27
   soldstatus $325,000
5. 2023-02-24
   soldstatus $325,000 Sold 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! If you are looking for a place to call home, that will feel like home, in a great location. .. .you just found it!!! This lovely bilevel home in highly sought after Hanover Twp is the perfect one for you! It sits on a flat large corner lot, within a quiet mature neighborhood. This well built home has a cozy den with a lot of natural light entering from the surrounding windows. You can also sit and relax in your living room and watch your wood burning stove or in the family room in front of the fireplace. This home has been well cared for by the family who has owned it for several years. During their ownership, the owner has had a roof replaced, central air, hot water heater and windows. That is not all, this property has had an addition built in the rear of the home that added two rooms for additional living space. The home has hardwood floors throughout. This home is located in close proximity to local hospitals, colleges, and schools. Clear Certificate of Occupancy.

6. 2023-01-10
   status Pending 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! If you are looking for a place to call home, that will feel like home, in a great location. .. .you just found it!!! This lovely bilevel home in highly sought after Hanover Twp is the perfect one for you! It sits on a flat large corner lot, within a quiet mature neighborhood. This well built home has a cozy den with a lot of natural light entering from the surrounding windows. You can also sit and relax in your living room and watch your wood burning stove or in the family room in front of the fireplace. This home has been well cared for by the family who has owned it for several years. During their ownership, the owner has had a roof replaced, central air, hot water heater and windows. That is not all, this property has had an addition built in the rear of the home that added two rooms for additional living space. The home has hardwood floors throughout. This home is located in close proximity to local hospitals, colleges, and schools. Clear Certificate of Occupancy.

7. 2022-12-29
   price $340,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! If you are looking for a place to call home, that will feel like home, in a great location. .. .you just found it!!! This lovely bilevel home in highly sought after Hanover Twp is the perfect one for you! It sits on a flat large corner lot, within a quiet mature neighborhood. This well built home has a cozy den with a lot of natural light entering from the surrounding windows. You can also sit and relax in your living room and watch your wood burning stove or in the family room in front of the fireplace. This home has been well cared for by the family who has owned it for several years. During their ownership, the owner has had a roof replaced, central air, hot water heater and windows. That is not all, this property has had an addition built in the rear of the home that added two rooms for additional living space. The home has hardwood floors throughout. This home is located in close proximity to local hospitals, colleges, and schools. Clear Certificate of Occupancy.

8. 2022-11-21
   price $339,900 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! If you are looking for a place to call home, that will feel like home, in a great location. .. .you just found it!!! This lovely bilevel home in highly sought after Hanover Twp is the perfect one for you! It sits on a flat large corner lot, within a quiet mature neighborhood. This well built home has a cozy den with a lot of natural light entering from the surrounding windows. You can also sit and relax in your living room and watch your wood burning stove or in the family room in front of the fireplace. This home has been well cared for by the family who has owned it for several years. During their ownership, the owner has had a roof replaced, central air, hot water heater and windows. That is not all, this property has had an addition built in the rear of the home that added two rooms for additional living space. The home has hardwood floors throughout. This home is located in close proximity to local hospitals, colleges, and schools. Clear Certificate of Occupancy.

9. 2022-10-20
   listed $349,900 Active - No Show 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Home Sweet Home! If you are looking for a place to call home, that will feel like home, in a great location. .. .you just found it!!! This lovely bilevel home in highly sought after Hanover Twp is the perfect one for you! It sits on a flat large corner lot, within a quiet mature neighborhood. This well built home has a cozy den with a lot of natural light entering from the surrounding windows. You can also sit and relax in your living room and watch your wood burning stove or in the family room in front of the fireplace. This home has been well cared for by the family who has owned it for several years. During their ownership, the owner has had a roof replaced, central air, hot water heater and windows. That is not all, this property has had an addition built in the rear of the home that added two rooms for additional living space. The home has hardwood floors throughout. This home is located in close proximity to local hospitals, colleges, and schools. Clear Certificate of Occupancy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,203 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,840 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$5,203
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,746
• − Management: −$2,746
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable loss: −$13,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 40,640
• Household income: $91,173
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 950.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Polish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.92%
• Current HPI: 203.0358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $409,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $419,900 GLVRMLS
• 2023-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) $325,000 GLVRMLS
• 2023-01-10 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $340,000 GLVRMLS
• 2022-11-21 Price Changed $339,900 GLVRMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $349,900 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,203 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.