163 Giant Cedar Trl

Whitney, TX 76692

$245,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-328/mo
• Annual: $-3,930/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (33.9% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitney El (393 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 55% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $245k implies a 532% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.