163 Giant Cedar Trl · Whitney, TX 76692

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1960 7,492 sqft lot Est $193k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

Key facts

• All new plumbing
• Two living areas
• New hvac system

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• RECENTLY REBUILT DECK
• RV PARKING WITH HOOKUPS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• COMPLETE ELECTRICAL REWIRE
• ALL NEW PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA loan, and owner financing (owner will carry)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 covered spaces; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Electricity connected; Septic; All-weather road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached; Two levels; Built in 1960; Preowned
• Construction: Siding exterior; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered rear porch; Deck; RV hookup; RV/boat parking; Adjacent to greenbelt; Interior lot with many trees and some trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Granite countertops; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom upstairs); Additional bedrooms on upper and lower levels
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitney El (393 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 55% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $245k implies a 532% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,849 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,402
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Quail Lake Dr E	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+0%)	7mo	$245,000	$188	76
112 Post Oak Bnd	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (-3%)	16mo	$177,900	$141	63
103 Sulak	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	5mo	$200,000	$149	57
114 Quail Lake Dr W	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+14%)	2mo	$299,000	$202	52
109 Bluebonnet Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (+10%)	1mo	$189,000	$133	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-60,589
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-79,738
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,631/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $187,143

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $249,000 Active
17. 2023-10-04
    historical
18. 2023-09-06
    listed $149,000 Active
19. 2022-10-18
    soldstatus
20. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus Closed 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

21. 2022-09-12
    status Pending 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

22. 2022-09-07
    historical Active Option Contract 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

23. 2022-08-18
    price $112,000 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

24. 2022-07-11
    status Active 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

25. 2022-07-08
    status Pending 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

26. 2022-06-22
    listed $119,000 Active 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    This is an AS IS property! Home has a lot of potential, lake house, Air BnB. With the right buyer the possibilities are endless. You don't want to miss this one! Please use caution when walking on the back porch and stairs.

27. 2022-05-06
    historical
28. 2022-04-27
    price $138,000
29. 2022-03-25
    price $140,000
30. 2022-03-01
    price $152,000
31. 2022-02-03
    listed $164,900 Active
32. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus $38,750
33. 2015-09-08
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2015-07-14
    status Pending
35. 2015-06-12
    listed $56,180 Active
36. 2006-03-09
    soldstatus
37. 2006-03-09
    soldstatus
38. 2006-01-23
    historical
39. 2005-11-01
    listed $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,631 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,853/yr (+$154/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,631
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$8,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+221.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-09-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-09-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $112,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-07-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-04-27 Price Changed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-25 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-01 Price Changed $152,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-03 Listed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2021-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $38,750 Public Records
• 2015-09-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-07-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-06-12 Listed $56,180 NTREIS
• 2006-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-01-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-11-01 Listed $77,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,631 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.