409 Croy Ln

Linden, AL 36748

$39,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 300 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $488/mo
• Annual: $5,857/yr
• Cap rate: 20.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.43%
• DSCR: 3.33
• 1% rule: 2.49%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($993 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#316 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Linden City (rural): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #122 of 129 in AL (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linden Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 627 statewide, top 79%, 196 students, 80% FRL); George P Austin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #245 of 257 statewide, top 96%, 97 students, 86% FRL); Linden High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #248 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 141 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 84% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
• Marengo County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.