409 Croy Ln · Linden, AL 36748

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1900 0.40 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

In Linden, Alabama you will find this 3 bedroom, 2 full baths. Just a little TLC to make this house a home.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($993 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#316 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Linden City (rural): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #122 of 129 in AL (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linden Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 627 statewide, top 79%, 196 students, 80% FRL); George P Austin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #245 of 257 statewide, top 96%, 97 students, 86% FRL); Linden High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #248 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 141 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 84% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Marengo County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.43%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $50,442
• Equity at exit: $33,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.07×
• Total profit: $123,642
• Equity at exit: $69,442

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36748

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $850/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $499	+0% $488	+5% $477	+10% $466
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $449	+0% $488	+5% $527	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $498	base $488	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-07-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-18
   status Active
3. 2025-07-07
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-17
   price $39,900
5. 2025-02-24
   price $49,700
6. 2024-12-04
   price $54,900
7. 2024-09-16
   listed $59,900 Active
8. 2024-01-24
   soldstatus $47,899

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$850
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $4,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden City
• NCES district ID: 0102130
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,093
• Composite: 7.73/100
• National rank: #9938
• State rank: #122 of 129 in AL

Livability — Linden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #19631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Linden, AL
• Population (ZIP): 2,358

Population outlook (Marengo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,880 people
• By 2030: 16,760 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 14,599 · -18.4%
• By 2050: 12,729 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 7,966 · -55.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 50%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Marengo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 51.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.3pp toward R · 2008: 3.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+3.5 2012: D+7.2 2008: D+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.11%
• Current HPI: 124.09
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-24 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-07-18 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2025-07-07 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $39,900 WAMLS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $49,700 WAMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $54,900 WAMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $59,900 WAMLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,899 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $850 · +99.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.