279-291 Padua Hills Pl

San Diego, CA 92173

$13,200,000C+

3843 bd · 3782.0 ba · 33,025 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $153,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$69,222
• Tax + insurance: −$22,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$32,189
• Net cashflow: $29,871/mo
• Annual: $358,456/yr
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.70%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $3,696,000

Investor read

• This is a 61 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $13.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30k ($358k/yr) — positive. Per door: $490/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($153k rent vs $13.20M).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($11.62M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11.62M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $91k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $396k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $153,283/mo this rent would consume 2636% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1542% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.