5012 Erbs Bridge Rd

Shiremanstown, PA 17050

$365,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-570/mo
• Annual: $-6,840/yr
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-570 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#134 in PA, #1,073 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hampden El Sch (math 65% / reading 75%, grade A-, #147 of 1,518 statewide, top 10%, 530 students, 27% FRL); Mountain View Ms (math 46% / reading 70%, grade B, #59 of 512 statewide, top 12%, 1,378 students, 26% FRL); Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.3% in Shiremanstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.