5012 Erbs Bridge Rd · Shiremanstown, PA 17050

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1987 0.29 ac lot $190/sqft · 6% below area Est $388k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated home in Hampden Township, offering the perfect blend of modern upgrades and peaceful surroundings, located in the Cumberland Valley School District. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has undergone a major renovation in 2024, bringing fresh style and functionality throughout. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting layout featuring a fully updated kitchen with modern finishes that flows into the main living and dining areas, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. With approximately 1,920 square feet of living space, this home offers flexibility, including a convenient main level bedroom and updated bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a screened in porch, a deck overlooking Conodoguinet Creek, a fenced in yard, and a private balcony off the primary bedroom, perfect for relaxing and taking in the serene views. The full walkout basement provides excellent storage and presents incredible potential to be finished into additional living space, perfect for a family room, home office, or guest suite. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a move in ready home with modern updates, room to grow, and a great location!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Updated kitchen
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• FENCED IN YARD
• FULL WALKOUT BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-570 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Shiremanstown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#134 in PA, #1,073 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,673 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,164
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -5.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Hill Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,977 (+3%)	7mo	$345,000	$175	73
253 Indian Creek Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,902 (-1%)	11mo	$425,000	$223	60
302 Iroquois Way	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,792 (-7%)	12mo	$371,000	$207	58
100 N Saint Johns Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,961 (+2%)	7mo	$400,000	$204	58
447 Pawnee Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,951 (+2%)	10mo	$373,000	$191	56
4827 Brian Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,908 (-1%)	8mo	$330,000	$173	56
103 Hampden Ave	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,000 (+4%)	8mo	$362,000	$181	55
249 Indian Creek Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (-6%)	12mo	$354,500	$196	54
4819 Brian Rd	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,956 (+2%)	6mo	$343,000	$175	52
415 Pawnee Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,171 (+13%)	7mo	$330,000	$152	47
4622 S Clearview Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-8%)	10mo	$290,000	$164	44
313 Indian Creek Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,184 (+14%)	1mo	$525,000	$240	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-97,806
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-141,391
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17050

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,927/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $264,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-363	-5% $-467	+0% $-570	+5% $-673	+10% $-777
Rent	-10% $-751	-5% $-660	+0% $-570	+5% $-480	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-477	base $-570	+0.5pp $-665	+1.0pp $-761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4815 E Trindle Rd Unit 2 Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.5	1240	$1,750	$1.41	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $365,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $365,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $365,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $365,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $365,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $365,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $365,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-04-07
   listed $379,500 Active 1183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully updated home in Hampden Township, offering the perfect blend of modern upgrades and peaceful surroundings, located in the Cumberland Valley School District. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has undergone a major renovation in 2024, bringing fresh style and functionality throughout. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting layout featuring a fully updated kitchen with modern finishes that flows into the main living and dining areas, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. With approximately 1,920 square feet of living space, this home offers flexibility, including a convenient main level bedroom and updated bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a screened in porch, a deck overlooking Conodoguinet Creek, a fenced in yard, and a private balcony off the primary bedroom, perfect for relaxing and taking in the serene views. The full walkout basement provides excellent storage and presents incredible potential to be finished into additional living space, perfect for a family room, home office, or guest suite. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a move in ready home with modern updates, room to grow, and a great location!

9. 2026-03-31
   historical
10. 2026-03-18
    price $384,900
11. 2026-03-17
    listed $384,000 Active
12. 2026-03-17
    historical
13. 2026-02-03
    listed $389,000 Active
14. 2024-07-17
    soldstatus $250,000
15. 2024-07-12
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
16. 2024-06-28
    status Pending
17. 2024-06-18
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2024-05-08
    historical
19. 2024-04-01
    status Active
20. 2024-04-01
    status Active
21. 2024-03-31
    historical
22. 2024-03-31
    historical
23. 2024-03-15
    price $280,000
24. 2024-03-15
    price $310,000
25. 2023-12-12
    listed $290,000 Active
26. 2023-11-15
    price $340,000
27. 2023-11-01
    listed $400,000 Active
28. 2023-10-27
    historical
29. 1986-11-24
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,927 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,347 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,420/yr (+$118/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,927
• − Insurance: −$2,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$13,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shiremanstown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #1073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,571
• Household income: $113,720
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.84%
• Current HPI: 241.7363
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2430.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $379,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $384,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $384,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $389,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-12 Sold (MLS) $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-12 Listed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $400,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-27 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,927 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.