21711 Crest Peak Way

Houston, TX 77449

$283,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,316 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,388/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax + insurance: −$786
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-418/mo
• Annual: $-5,013/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $79,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Loraine T Golbow El (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 959 students, 73% FRL); T H Mcdonald J H (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,059 students, 74% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 27% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?