127 Red Birch Ln

Centerville, GA 31093

$275,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,156 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary School (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 630 students, 84% FRL); Thomson Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 736 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,183/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1516% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.