2934 Monterey Ave S

St. Louis Park, MN 55416

$399,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,238 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$568
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-486/mo
• Annual: $-5,830/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis Park Public School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #100 of 301 in MN (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in St. Louis Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.