2934 Monterey Ave S · St. Louis Park, MN 55416

$399,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,238 sqft · Townhouse public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1989 1,742 sqft lot $179/sqft · 25% below area Est $606k · 34% under $568/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath Saint Louis Park townhome ideally located near the lakes, trails, and vibrant dining scene. The main level features an inviting living room with a cozy gas fireplace and walkout to a private deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a convenient half bath. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish tile backsplash. Upstairs you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, plus a full bath and upper-level laundry for added convenience. The walkout lower level provides a spacious family room with built-ins, an additional 3/4 bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or movie nights. Enjoy ample storage, a thoughtful layout, and multiple living spaces throughout, with a great opportunity to add your own personal style and updates over time. Located just minutes from Bde Maka Ska, Lake of the Isles, and Lake Harriet, with easy access to parks, trails, restaurants, and shopping. Plenty of guest parking conveniently located just outside the home.

Key facts

• $568 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in St. Louis Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis Park Public School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #100 of 301 in MN (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $314,078 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $605,959
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -34.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-98,025
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-134,419
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55416

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$576 /mo · $6,916/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$568
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,314

Max offer price $314,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-259	-5% $-373	+0% $-486	+5% $-599	+10% $-712
Rent	-10% $-778	-5% $-632	+0% $-486	+5% $-340	+10% $-194
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-384	base $-486	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2921 Sunset Blvd Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2500	$3,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.47mi
3920 Excelsior Blvd Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$3,231	$3.08	2d	16	0.72mi
3430 List Pl Minneapolis, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$3,460	$3.09	8d	1	0.72mi
5600 Camerata Way Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,502	$2.41	3d	27	0.86mi
3012 Excelsior Blvd Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1309	$6,595	$5.04	0d	10	0.90mi
3118 W Lake St Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$3,307	$3.29	0d	14	0.91mi
5855 Highway 7 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$3,305	$3.34	0d	37	0.97mi
5690 W 36th St St Louis Park, MN	2.0	2.5	2260	$3,180	$1.41	44d	1	1.00mi
4900 Cedar Lake Rd S Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$2,995	$2.70	0d	7	1.01mi
3820 Grand Way St Louis Park, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1301	$3,895	$2.99	0d	35	1.05mi
2900 Thomas Ave S Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0–3.0	1933	$5,820	$3.01	0d	48	1.17mi
2622 W Lake St Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1479	$6,840	$4.62	15d	1	1.21mi
2700 Florida Ave S Minneapolis, MN	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,899	$1.61	5d	1	1.31mi
2601 Georgia Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,699	$1.59	5d	1	1.39mi
1325 Utica Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$3,740	$3.63	0d	10	1.45mi
5235 Wayzata Blvd Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$3,762	$3.77	0d	13	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $568 · $6,816/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-05
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath Saint Louis Park townhome ideally located near the lakes, trails, and vibrant dining scene. The main level features an inviting living room with a cozy gas fireplace and walkout to a private deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a convenient half bath. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish tile backsplash. Upstairs you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, plus a full bath and upper-level laundry for added convenience. The walkout lower level provides a spacious family room with built-ins, an additional 3/4 bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or movie nights. Enjoy ample storage, a thoughtful layout, and multiple living spaces throughout, with a great opportunity to add your own personal style and updates over time. Located just minutes from Bde Maka Ska, Lake of the Isles, and Lake Harriet, with easy access to parks, trails, restaurants, and shopping. Plenty of guest parking conveniently located just outside the home.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $399,900 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath Saint Louis Park townhome ideally located near the lakes, trails, and vibrant dining scene. The main level features an inviting living room with a cozy gas fireplace and walkout to a private deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a convenient half bath. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish tile backsplash. Upstairs you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, plus a full bath and upper-level laundry for added convenience. The walkout lower level provides a spacious family room with built-ins, an additional 3/4 bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or movie nights. Enjoy ample storage, a thoughtful layout, and multiple living spaces throughout, with a great opportunity to add your own personal style and updates over time. Located just minutes from Bde Maka Ska, Lake of the Isles, and Lake Harriet, with easy access to parks, trails, restaurants, and shopping. Plenty of guest parking conveniently located just outside the home.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $419,900 Active 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath Saint Louis Park townhome ideally located near the lakes, trails, and vibrant dining scene. The main level features an inviting living room with a cozy gas fireplace and walkout to a private deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a convenient half bath. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish tile backsplash. Upstairs you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, plus a full bath and upper-level laundry for added convenience. The walkout lower level provides a spacious family room with built-ins, an additional 3/4 bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or movie nights. Enjoy ample storage, a thoughtful layout, and multiple living spaces throughout, with a great opportunity to add your own personal style and updates over time. Located just minutes from Bde Maka Ska, Lake of the Isles, and Lake Harriet, with easy access to parks, trails, restaurants, and shopping. Plenty of guest parking conveniently located just outside the home.

4. 2026-03-16
   historical $419,900 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath Saint Louis Park townhome ideally located near the lakes, trails, and vibrant dining scene. The main level features an inviting living room with a cozy gas fireplace and walkout to a private deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a convenient half bath. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish tile backsplash. Upstairs you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, plus a full bath and upper-level laundry for added convenience. The walkout lower level provides a spacious family room with built-ins, an additional 3/4 bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or movie nights. Enjoy ample storage, a thoughtful layout, and multiple living spaces throughout, with a great opportunity to add your own personal style and updates over time. Located just minutes from Bde Maka Ska, Lake of the Isles, and Lake Harriet, with easy access to parks, trails, restaurants, and shopping. Plenty of guest parking conveniently located just outside the home.

5. 2025-06-03
   historical $2,495
6. 2025-05-28
   listed $2,495
7. 2025-05-20
   historical
8. 2024-12-16
   price $425,000
9. 2024-10-19
   listed $435,000 Active
10. 2024-10-19
    historical
11. 2024-08-22
    listed $440,000 Active
12. 2024-08-21
    historical
13. 2024-08-08
    historical
14. 2024-06-04
    price $450,000
15. 2024-05-19
    price $459,900
16. 2024-05-01
    price $469,900
17. 2024-04-05
    price $479,900
18. 2024-03-25
    listed $489,900 Active
19. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $380,000 Sold
20. 2019-03-29
    status Pending
21. 2019-03-06
    historical Contingent - Inspection
22. 2019-01-31
    status Active
23. 2018-09-22
    historical
24. 2018-09-22
    price $389,900
25. 2018-07-25
    price $375,000
26. 2018-07-16
    listed $389,900 Active
27. 1992-06-26
    soldstatus $144,120

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,916 · $576/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,916 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$6,916
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,551
• − Management: −$3,551
• − HOA: −$6,816
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$12,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,995
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis Park Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733780
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $65,785
• Composite: 44.26/100
• National rank: #2840
• State rank: #100 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Louis Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis Park, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 60,356
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 35,015
• Household income: $105,958
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1213.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -490.63%
• Current HPI: 230.651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+177.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $399,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $419,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Coming Soon $419,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Rental Removed $2,495 BUILDIUM
• 2025-05-28 Listed for Rent $2,495 BUILDIUM
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $425,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Listed $435,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $440,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $450,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-19 Price Changed $459,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $469,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $479,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Listed $489,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) $380,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-31 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-22 Price Changed $389,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-25 Price Changed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-16 Listed $389,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $144,120 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,916 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.