3 Birchbrook Dr

Thornwood, NY 10595

$1,550,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,128
• Tax + insurance: −$2,541
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,730
• Net cashflow: $-400/mo
• Annual: $-4,805/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $434,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.55M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.48M (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (16.1% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.30M (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $46k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Pleasant Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #146 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B+, #587 of 2,108 statewide, top 28%, 482 students, 10% FRL); Westlake Middle School (math 55% / reading 61%, grade B, #184 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 429 students, 14% FRL); Westlake High School (math 72% / reading 95%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 547 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $455k; list at $1.55M implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.