3 Birchbrook Dr · Thornwood, NY 10595

$1,550,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1958 0.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this breathtaking and masterfully renovated home, perfectly situated on . 93 acres perfect for entertaining. This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home offers the perfect balance of ultra-modern luxury and tranquil suburban living. Step inside to discover this bright, expansive home with an open floor plan featuring formal living room with fireplace, open to formal dining room with floor to ceiling windows. This gourmet chef’s kitchen is a showstopper, boasting a massive waterfall island, professional-grade appliances with elegant, brushed gold hardware, and custom cabinetry—creating a seamless flow for everyday living and high-end entertaining. The primary suite serves as a p

Key facts

• 0.93 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.55M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.48M (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.30M (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Pleasant Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #146 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B+, #587 of 2,108 statewide, top 28%, 482 students, 10% FRL); Westlake Middle School (math 55% / reading 61%, grade B, #184 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 429 students, 14% FRL); Westlake High School (math 72% / reading 95%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 547 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $46k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $455k; list at $1.55M implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,299,900 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $792,528
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Halsey Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+0%)	4mo	$850,000	$446	79
56 Greenwood Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,043 (+8%)	21mo	$833,500	$408	48
24 Saxon Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,688 (-11%)	18mo	$880,000	$521	46
20 Lochland Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+7%)	12mo	$850,000	$418	46
130 E Stevens Ave	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,980 (+4%)	20mo	$757,500	$383	35
5 Roy Pl	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,647 (-13%)	17mo	$680,000	$413	32
70 Highland Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,656 (-13%)	8mo	$800,000	$483	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-276,497
• Equity at exit: $231,110

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-272,912
• Equity at exit: $134,016

Cash invested: $434,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10595

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,128
• Tax from tax record: −$1,895 /mo · $22,745/yr
• Insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,730
• Net cashflow: $-400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,506

Max offer price $1,479,271

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $387,500
• Closing costs: $46,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Foxwood Ln Thornwood, NY	4.0	3.5	2026	$12,999	$6.42	43d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $1,550,000 Active
3. 2026-02-26
   historical $1,550,000
4. 1999-01-20
   soldstatus $455,000
5. 1986-07-18
   soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $22,745 · $1,895/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $24,470 · $2,039/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,725/yr (+$144/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $155,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$86,824
• − Property taxes: −$22,745
• − Insurance: −$7,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,479
• − Management: −$12,479
• − Depreciation: −$45,091
• Taxable loss: −$31,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,531
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Pleasant Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620160
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $109,054
• Composite: 59.62/100
• National rank: #911
• State rank: #146 of 590 in NY

Livability — Thornwood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,180

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Armenian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.54%
• Current HPI: 290.8983
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+638.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $1,550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Coming Soon $1,550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $455,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,745 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.