1648 Pennsylvania Ave

Bismarck, ND 58504

$49,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $898/mo
• Annual: $10,772/yr
• Cap rate: 28.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.51%
• DSCR: 4.49
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jeannette Myhre Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #216 of 236 statewide, top 93%, 254 students, 65% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 19% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bismarck 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.