1648 Pennsylvania Ave · Bismarck, ND 58504

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $73k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this great home that just came on the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full shower, and a 3/4 shower. The home has new windows throughout and has had some updates. Great location on a corner lot with a DOUBLE stall heated detached garage and an extra space for an RV PAD. This home is priced to sell. Call a Realtor today for a showing!

Key facts

• Nicely sized kitchen
• Corner yard
• Spacious deck

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• NICELY SIZED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• CORNER YARD
• SPACIOUS DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Colonial Estates subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Window treatments; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jeannette Myhre Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #216 of 236 statewide, top 93%, 254 students, 65% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 19% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bismarck 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.51%
• DSCR: 4.49
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,800
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Connecticut St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	0mo	$57,000	$39	89
1119 University Dr #1101	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	0mo	$95,000	$71	72
1119 University Dr #1705	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	0mo	$57,600	$40	69
246 Boeing Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+2%)	10mo	$39,000	$27	68
725 S 12th St #204	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	19mo	$75,000	$52	55
129 New Jersey St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	23mo	$72,900	$60	48
162 Northwest Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	15mo	$63,000	$52	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $48,937
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.38×
• Total profit: $115,028
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $145/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $366

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $925	-5% $912	+0% $898	+5% $884	+10% $870
Rent	-10% $779	-5% $838	+0% $898	+5% $957	+10% $1,016
Rate	-1.0pp $922	-0.5pp $910	base $898	+0.5pp $885	+1.0pp $872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,955	$1.65	21d	19	0.76mi
505 1/2 S 10th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	21d	1	0.85mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,980	$1.72	21d	12	0.86mi
172 Boise Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	1.15mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 201-302E Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	21d	1	1.15mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 205-305G Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	21d	1	1.15mi
2316 E Broadway Ave Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,250	$1.12	21d	1	1.17mi
205 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	21d	1	1.20mi
201 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	21d	1	1.23mi
407 N 12th St Unit 3/4 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	21d	1	1.28mi
2220 East Avenue A Unit 1/2 Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,150	$0.94	21d	1	1.33mi
1543 S Washington St Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	21d	1	1.36mi
700 N 22nd St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $49,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    status Active
19. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-24
    listed $52,000 Active
21. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Come check out this great home that just came on the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full shower, and a 3/4 shower. The home has new windows throughout and has had some updates. Great location on a corner lot with a DOUBLE stall heated detached garage and an extra space for an RV PAD. This home is priced to sell. Call a Realtor today for a showing!

22. 2021-05-08
    listed $49,500 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Come check out this great home that just came on the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full shower, and a 3/4 shower. The home has new windows throughout and has had some updates. Great location on a corner lot with a DOUBLE stall heated detached garage and an extra space for an RV PAD. This home is priced to sell. Call a Realtor today for a showing!

23. 2000-11-10
    soldstatus 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Exclude formal dining chandalier, drapes & sheers - lot rent $200

24. 2000-08-14
    listed $29,900 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Exclude formal dining chandalier, drapes & sheers - lot rent $200

25. 1995-02-02
    soldstatus
26. 1994-11-23
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $145 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 231.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$145
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $10,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,541
• After-tax cash flow: $8,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+161.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $52,000 GNMLS
• 2021-06-17 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2021-05-08 Listed $49,500 GNMLS
• 2000-11-10 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-08-14 Listed $29,900 GNMLS
• 1995-02-02 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1994-11-23 Listed $19,900 GNMLS