203 Drew St

Fayetteville, NC 28376

$243,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,277
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-152/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $68,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (22.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $189k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Upchurch Elementary (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #750 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 698 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 62% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $244k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.