18764 SE Old Trail Dr

Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$1,875,000C

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,750 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax + insurance: −$1,743
• HOA: −$223
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $5,977/mo
• Annual: $71,719/yr
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $525,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.88M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($72k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.88M).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $729k; list at $1.88M implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.