18764 SE Old Trail Dr · Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$1,875,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2002 0.91 ac lot $500/sqft · 41% above area Est $1330k · 41% over $223/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning 4BR, 5BA CBS estate home on nearly one acre of beautifully landscaped, private grounds in the prestigious gated community of Ranch Colony in Jupiter. Located in the exclusive Old Trail golf community, this elegant one story home features a split floor plan, 15 ft vaulted ceiling in the living area, 12 ft vaulted ceilings in the bedrooms, crown molding, oversized rooms, and gas fireplace. Kitchen offers granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, double wall oven, and gas range. French doors open to a large patio with private heated screened pool overlooking lush landscaping and golf course views. Manned gate, exceptional privacy, minutes to beaches, dining, and shopping. Golf, equestrian, and aviation community. No golf membership required. Low HOA.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Vaulted ceiling
• Split floor plan

Tags

• PRIVATE GROUNDS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• OLD TRAIL GOLF COMMUNITY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILING
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.88M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($72k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.88M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $729k; list at $1.88M implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,762,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,330,270
• List price: $1,875,000
• Delta: 40.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4034 SE Hammock Pl	0.28mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,647 (-3%)	8mo	$1,100,000	$302	64
19058 SE Old Trail Dr	0.24mi	4/4.0	3,399 (-9%)	11mo	$1,225,000	$360	60
18798 SE Old Trail Dr W	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,319 (-12%)	5mo	$1,350,000	$407	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $76,449
• Equity at exit: $279,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $555,207
• Equity at exit: $162,116

Cash invested: $525,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33478

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax from tax record: −$961 /mo · $11,537/yr
• Insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $5,977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,935

Max offer price $1,875,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $468,750
• Closing costs: $56,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18337 SE Old Trail Dr W Jupiter, FL	4.0	4.5	4626	$22,500	$4.86	23d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $1,875,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Stunning 4BR, 5BA CBS estate home on nearly one acre of beautifully landscaped, private grounds in the prestigious gated community of Ranch Colony in Jupiter. Located in the exclusive Old Trail golf community, this elegant one story home features a split floor plan, 15 ft vaulted ceiling in the living area, 12 ft vaulted ceilings in the bedrooms, crown molding, oversized rooms, and gas fireplace. Kitchen offers granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, double wall oven, and gas range. French doors open to a large patio with private heated screened pool overlooking lush landscaping and golf course views. Manned gate, exceptional privacy, minutes to beaches, dining, and shopping. Golf, equestrian, and aviation community. No golf membership required. Low HOA.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $2,000,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Stunning 4BR, 5BA CBS estate home on nearly one acre of beautifully landscaped, private grounds in the prestigious gated community of Ranch Colony in Jupiter. Located in the exclusive Old Trail golf community, this elegant one story home features a split floor plan, 15 ft vaulted ceiling in the living area, 12 ft vaulted ceilings in the bedrooms, crown molding, oversized rooms, and gas fireplace. Kitchen offers granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, double wall oven, and gas range. French doors open to a large patio with private heated screened pool overlooking lush landscaping and golf course views. Manned gate, exceptional privacy, minutes to beaches, dining, and shopping. Golf, equestrian, and aviation community. No golf membership required. Low HOA.

18. 2018-05-08
    soldstatus $729,100
19. 2018-05-04
    soldstatus $729,000 Closed 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 5 full baths situated on almost 1 acre lush private lot. Located in a gated community. This CBS home has a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, charming gas fireplace, crown molding, and large bedrooms. The kitchen has generous cabinet space, granite counter tops, SS appliances, double wall oven and gas range. There is 18 x 18 tile, natural wood and Bamboo wood flooring throughout the living areas. Large French doors open up to a spacious deck and patio area with a private pool overlooking the lush landscaping and golf course, perfect for the family and entertaining. Tenant occupied at this time.

20. 2018-03-21
    historical Active Under Contract 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 5 full baths situated on almost 1 acre lush private lot. Located in a gated community. This CBS home has a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, charming gas fireplace, crown molding, and large bedrooms. The kitchen has generous cabinet space, granite counter tops, SS appliances, double wall oven and gas range. There is 18 x 18 tile, natural wood and Bamboo wood flooring throughout the living areas. Large French doors open up to a spacious deck and patio area with a private pool overlooking the lush landscaping and golf course, perfect for the family and entertaining. Tenant occupied at this time.

21. 2018-02-10
    price $749,888 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 5 full baths situated on almost 1 acre lush private lot. Located in a gated community. This CBS home has a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, charming gas fireplace, crown molding, and large bedrooms. The kitchen has generous cabinet space, granite counter tops, SS appliances, double wall oven and gas range. There is 18 x 18 tile, natural wood and Bamboo wood flooring throughout the living areas. Large French doors open up to a spacious deck and patio area with a private pool overlooking the lush landscaping and golf course, perfect for the family and entertaining. Tenant occupied at this time.

22. 2017-12-18
    listed $799,888 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 5 full baths situated on almost 1 acre lush private lot. Located in a gated community. This CBS home has a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, charming gas fireplace, crown molding, and large bedrooms. The kitchen has generous cabinet space, granite counter tops, SS appliances, double wall oven and gas range. There is 18 x 18 tile, natural wood and Bamboo wood flooring throughout the living areas. Large French doors open up to a spacious deck and patio area with a private pool overlooking the lush landscaping and golf course, perfect for the family and entertaining. Tenant occupied at this time.

23. 2013-09-22
    historical
24. 2012-07-05
    soldstatus $762,500
25. 2012-06-28
    soldstatus $762,500
26. 2012-06-19
    historical
27. 2011-12-30
    listed $825,000
28. 2011-12-30
    historical
29. 2010-12-07
    listed $895,000
30. 2010-07-16
    soldstatus $625,000
31. 2010-07-15
    soldstatus $625,000
32. 2009-09-15
    listed $750,000
33. 2009-06-17
    historical
34. 2008-06-18
    listed $1,100,000
35. 2004-05-17
    soldstatus $771,000
36. 2004-05-11
    soldstatus $771,000
37. 2004-04-17
    historical
38. 2003-11-08
    listed $849,900
39. 2002-04-04
    listed $640,000
40. 2001-07-17
    soldstatus $100,000
41. 1988-12-15
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,537 · $961/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,562 · $1,297/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,025/yr (+$335/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $270,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$105,029
• − Property taxes: −$11,537
• − Insurance: −$9,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,600
• − Management: −$21,600
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$54,545
• Taxable income: $43,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,473
• After-tax cash flow: $61,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter Farms

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #617
• US rank: #11894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,205

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -306.11%
• Current HPI: 427.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2400.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $1,875,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $2,000,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $729,100 Public Records
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) $729,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-03-21 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2018-02-10 Price Changed $749,888 Beaches MLS
• 2017-12-18 Listed $799,888 Beaches MLS
• 2013-09-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2012-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $762,500 Public Records
• 2012-06-28 Sold (MLS) $762,500 Beaches MLS
• 2012-06-19 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-12-30 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-12-30 Listed $825,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-12-07 Listed $895,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-07-16 Sold (MLS) $625,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $625,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-15 Listed $750,000 Beaches MLS
• 2009-06-17 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2008-06-18 Listed $1,100,000 Beaches MLS
• 2004-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $771,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-11 Sold (MLS) $771,000 Beaches MLS
• 2004-04-17 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2003-11-08 Listed $849,900 Beaches MLS
• 2002-04-04 Listed $640,000 Beaches MLS
• 2001-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,537 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.