404 Spike Ct

Florence, SC 29505

$245,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active Under Contract · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-477/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-477/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (24.4% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#196 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Florence 01 (urban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #34 of 80 in SC (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savannah Grove Elementary (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #435 of 597 statewide, top 73%, 432 students, 100% FRL); Henry L. Sneed Middle (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #162 of 229 statewide, top 71%, 693 students, 94% FRL); South Florence High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #48 of 196 statewide, top 26%, 1,643 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 57% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 657 units permitted in Florence County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $180k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.