2477 US RT 5 Lot C 18

Derby Center, VT 05829

$83,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$455
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-214/mo
• Annual: $-2,565/yr
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $23,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $52k (37.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($574 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#107 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Derby Elementary School (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #160 of 192 statewide, top 84%, 496 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom vanity — Needs fresh paint
• Minor: Exterior siding — Faded paint