2477 US RT 5 Lot C 18 · Derby Center, VT 05829

$83,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 2001 Average condition Est $70k · 19% over $455/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2001 mobile home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, measuring 14x70 feet and situated on a rare double lot in the Derby Mobile Home Park. The primary bedroom features its own private bath along with a spacious walk-in closet, providing a comfortable and functional layout. Additional features include a well-built carport, a small entry deck, and a larger rear deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A storage shed with power and lighting adds extra versatility, while a protective structure over the outdoor fuel tank enhances durability and ease of maintenance. The oversized lot provides ample space for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the open surroundi

Key facts

• Larger rear deck
• Private bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WELL-BUILT CARPORT
• LARGER REAR DECK
• STORAGE SHED WITH POWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private road frontage; Directions: Go north from Derby Center. Past Nelson Hill. Turn into the park. C street is the first left once in the park. Continue to the home on your right.
• HOA & community: Monthly community fee; Monthly fee covers landscaping, park rent, plowing, sewer, trash, and water; Trash removal provided

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp service with circuit breakers; Vermont Electric service; High-speed internet available (cable); Cable available (Xfinity); Telephone available; Fuel service: Freds Energy
• Home design: Manufactured home (Manuf/Mobile); Grey exterior color; Shingle roof; Located in Derby Mobile Home Park (park approval granted); Unit/Lot: Lot C 18
• Construction: Built in 2001; Vinyl siding; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Leased lot; Gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Laminate and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $52k (37.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#107 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Derby Elementary School (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #160 of 192 statewide, top 84%, 496 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($574 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,066 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,580
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2477 US Route 5 Unit D19	0.00mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	2mo	$77,000	$79	94
2477 Vt Route 5 Rd Unit D-9	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+9%)	2mo	$72,000	$68	73
2477 VT Route 5 Unit B6	0.14mi	3/1.5 (+1)	938 (-4%)	8mo	$30,000	$32	73
2477 US Route 5 Rte Unit C-11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	7mo	$86,000	$77	65
2477 US Route 5 Unit E17	0.00mi	2/1.0	854 (-13%)	13mo	$27,000	$32	64
2477 US Route 5 Lot C3	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	18mo	$80,000	$71	62
2477 Route 5 Unit D2	0.00mi	2/2.0	858 (-12%)	24mo	$89,000	$104	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $31,883
• Equity at exit: $74,773

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $105,186
• Equity at exit: $161,251

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05829

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $52,066

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-185	+0% $-214	+5% $-242	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-255	+0% $-214	+5% $-173	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-193	base $-214	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-02
   listed $83,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable loss: −$3,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained 2001 mobile home with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom vanity — Needs fresh paint
• Minor Exterior siding — Faded paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Paint bathroom vanity — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets enhance kitchen functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom vanity · Needs fresh paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Faded paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint bathroom vanity — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets enhance kitchen functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Derby Center

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #21814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,600

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 264.8768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $83,000 PrimeMLS