4863 Gavilan Rd

Oceanside, CA 99999

$125,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $1,455/mo
• Annual: $17,464/yr
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.90%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 2.35%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Casita Center For Science/Math/Technology (683 students, 40% FRL); Vista Magnet Middle School of Technology Science And Math (819 students, 66% FRL); Vista High (math 18% / reading 47%, grade F, #669 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 2,030 students, 72% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Vista Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof shows significant damage and wear, requiring replacement.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding is peeling and exposed, indicating severe damage and requiring replacement.
• Major: flooring — The flooring is in poor condition, with visible wear and tear, requiring replacement.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with peeling paint and exposed wood, requiring repair or replacement.
• Major: HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible rust and wear, requiring replacement.