4863 Gavilan Rd · Oceanside, CA 99999

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1983 Poor condition 6.90 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Views and potential of this 7-acre property in Mariposa, a charming historic Gold Rush town nestled in the Sierra Nevada foothills and known as a premier year-round gateway to Yosemite National Park. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is ready for your finishing touches. The remodel has already been started, featuring new copper plumbing, on demand hot water and beautiful honey oak kitchen cabinets that are ready for installation. Septic system, 300 ft well and city power in place. With solid bones and major upgrades already underway, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a first-time homebuyer, investor, or anyone looking to create their dream foothill retreat. Seller i

Key facts

• Copper plumbing
• 300 ft well
• 7 acre property

Tags

• 7 ACRE PROPERTY
• HISTORIC GOLD RUSH TOWN
• COPPER PLUMBING
• HONEY OAK KITCHEN CABINETS
• 300 FT WELL
• TWO 40 FT SHIPPING CONTAINERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 800
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Level and rolling pasture land; Gravel road access; Has a view; Insulation as an energy efficiency feature

Interior

• Heating & cooling: No heating
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, crime D, cost of living F.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.90%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $613,600
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
270 Smoke Tree Pl	0.69mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	0mo	$695,000	$767	41
245 Smoke Tree Pl	0.74mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	2mo	$689,000	$760	38
4780 Yuma Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	14mo	$695,000	$767	34
4772 Mayten Ct	0.68mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	10mo	$675,000	$745	34
238 Flame Tree	0.70mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	14mo	$710,000	$784	29
4769 Mayten Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	906 (+13%)	23mo	$730,000	$806	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $107,794
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $253,913
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99999

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $1,455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,542	-5% $1,499	+0% $1,455	+5% $1,412	+10% $1,369
Rent	-10% $1,223	-5% $1,339	+0% $1,455	+5% $1,571	+10% $1,687
Rate	-1.0pp $1,518	-0.5pp $1,487	base $1,455	+0.5pp $1,423	+1.0pp $1,390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5064 Via Manos Unit B Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.0	1038	$3,300	$3.18	0d	1	0.09mi
5048 Via Manos Unit D 1 Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,000	$3.15	19d	1	0.12mi
5094 Via Manos Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$2,550	$2.68	5d	1	0.16mi
5033 Los Morros Way #55 Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,188	$2.90	0d	1	0.96mi
1227 Paseo Hermosa Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,950	$2.95	23d	1	1.12mi
715 Rena Dr Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,450	$3.33	16d	1	1.25mi
4907 Stephanie Pl Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.0	1074	$3,000	$2.79	12d	1	1.32mi
145 Francesca Dr Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$2,600	$3.14	25d	1	1.36mi
526 Calle Montecito #140 Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.0	809	$2,690	$3.33	0d	1	1.42mi
510 Calle Montecito #60 Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.0	806	$2,495	$3.10	6d	1	1.43mi
513 Calle Montecito #66 Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$2,350	$2.45	45d	1	1.48mi
517 Calle Montecito #87 Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	856	$2,900	$3.39	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 698-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $175,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,818
• − Management: −$2,818
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $16,453
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,949
• After-tax cash flow: $13,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This 7-acre property in Mariposa, CA, requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and HVAC system. The home is currently in poor condition and would benefit from a major renovation to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof shows significant damage and wear, requiring replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The siding is peeling and exposed, indicating severe damage and requiring replacement.
• Major flooring — The flooring is in poor condition, with visible wear and tear, requiring replacement.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with peeling paint and exposed wood, requiring repair or replacement.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible rust and wear, requiring replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale exterior siding repair/replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale interior wall repair/replacement — New interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both fencing — A new fence will improve the home's security and increase its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof shows significant damage and wear, requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding is peeling and exposed, indicating severe damage and requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is in poor condition, with visible wear and tear, requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with peeling paint and exposed wood, requiring repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible rust and wear, requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair/replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale interior wall repair/replacement — New interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both fencing — A new fence will improve the home's security and increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vista Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641190
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,067
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3850
• State rank: #175 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oceanside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #14081

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oceanside, CA

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $175,000 HAR
• 2026-06-02 Listed $225,000 HAR