12705 SW Airfield Ln

Crooked River Ranch, OR 97734

$325,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,709
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,660/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $91,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $326k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Culver SD 4 (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #33 of 58 in OR (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.