12705 SW Airfield Ln · Crooked River Ranch, OR 97734

$325,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1994 5.00 ac lot $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own 5 acres in 3 Rivers, move-in ready, fabulous rim views of the Cascades, Smith Rock, and Big Canyon. 2 generous bedrooms, 2 full baths, open concept w/great room, kitchen & dining w/tons of built-in storage plus propane fireplace (rented tank) for heating. Laundry room with additional man door leading to large wrap-around deck for entertaining and relaxing with friends and family. All appliances and furnishings included at no stated value. Solar owned system includes 500 watts of PV panels, inverter/charge controller and new batteries in 2025. 1200 gallon cistern in separate-insulated building, outhouse, storage building and mechanical building plus new 30 year roof installed recently. This one won't last long with all these features and an affordable price. Call your favorite agent to book a viewing today.

Key facts

• 1200 gallon cistern
• New 30 year roof
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• RIM VIEWS
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• SOLAR OWNED SYSTEM
• 1200 GALLON CISTERN
• NEW 30 YEAR ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Culver SD 4 (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #33 of 58 in OR (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,475 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $168,594
• Equity at exit: $293,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $503,230
• Equity at exit: $633,152

Cash invested: $91,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97734

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,709
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,873/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,590

Max offer price $301,467

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,475
• Closing costs: $9,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,900 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,900 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,900 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,900 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,900 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,900 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,900 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,900 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,900 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,900 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,900 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,900 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,900 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,900 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,900 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,900 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $325,900 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Great opportunity to own 5 acres in 3 Rivers, move-in ready, fabulous rim views of the Cascades, Smith Rock, and Big Canyon. 2 generous bedrooms, 2 full baths, open concept w/ great room, kitchen & dining w/ tons of built-in storage plus propane fireplace (rented tank) for heating. Laundry room with additional man door leading to large wrap-around deck for entertaining and relaxing with friends and family. All appliances and furnishings included at no stated value. Solar owned system includes 500 watts of PV panels, inverter/charge controller and new batteries in 2025. 1200 gallon cistern in separate-insulated building, outhouse, storage building and mechanical building plus new 30 year roof installed recently. This one won't last long with all these features and an affordable price. Call your favorite agent to book a viewing today.

18. 2026-05-17
    price $325,900 851-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Great opportunity to own 5 acres in 3 Rivers, move-in ready, fabulous rim views of the Cascades, Smith Rock, and Big Canyon. 2 generous bedrooms, 2 full baths, open concept w/ great room, kitchen & dining w/ tons of built-in storage plus propane fireplace (rented tank) for heating. Laundry room with additional man door leading to large wrap-around deck for entertaining and relaxing with friends and family. All appliances and furnishings included at no stated value. Solar owned system includes 500 watts of PV panels, inverter/charge controller and new batteries in 2025. 1200 gallon cistern in separate-insulated building, outhouse, storage building and mechanical building plus new 30 year roof installed recently. This one won't last long with all these features and an affordable price. Call your favorite agent to book a viewing today.

19. 2025-10-20
    listed $339,500 Active 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Great opportunity to own 5 acres in 3 Rivers, move-in ready, fabulous rim views of the Cascades, Smith Rock, and Big Canyon. 2 generous bedrooms, 2 full baths, open concept w/ great room, kitchen & dining w/ tons of built-in storage plus propane fireplace (rented tank) for heating. Laundry room with additional man door leading to large wrap-around deck for entertaining and relaxing with friends and family. All appliances and furnishings included at no stated value. Solar owned system includes 500 watts of PV panels, inverter/charge controller and new batteries in 2025. 1200 gallon cistern in separate-insulated building, outhouse, storage building and mechanical building plus new 30 year roof installed recently. This one won't last long with all these features and an affordable price. Call your favorite agent to book a viewing today.

20. 2025-10-20
    listed $339,500 Active 851-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Great opportunity to own 5 acres in 3 Rivers, move-in ready, fabulous rim views of the Cascades, Smith Rock, and Big Canyon. 2 generous bedrooms, 2 full baths, open concept w/ great room, kitchen & dining w/ tons of built-in storage plus propane fireplace (rented tank) for heating. Laundry room with additional man door leading to large wrap-around deck for entertaining and relaxing with friends and family. All appliances and furnishings included at no stated value. Solar owned system includes 500 watts of PV panels, inverter/charge controller and new batteries in 2025. 1200 gallon cistern in separate-insulated building, outhouse, storage building and mechanical building plus new 30 year roof installed recently. This one won't last long with all these features and an affordable price. Call your favorite agent to book a viewing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,873 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,288/yr (+$107/mo · 68.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,255
• − Property taxes: −$1,873
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,318
• − Management: −$2,318
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$9,481
• Taxable loss: −$7,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Culver SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4103840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,943
• Composite: 28.14/100
• National rank: #6816
• State rank: #33 of 58 in OR

Livability — Crooked River Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,185
• Population (ZIP): 3,647

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Slovak 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.23%
• Current HPI: 562.3014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $325,900 RMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $325,900 MLSCO
• 2025-10-20 Listed $339,500 MLSCO
• 2025-10-20 Listed $339,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,873 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.