360 S Paseo Pena Unit B

Green Valley, AZ 85614

$124,900F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$545
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-432/mo
• Annual: $-5,185/yr
• Cap rate: 2.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.83%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-432 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (50.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 4.7% in Green Valley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — slight wear