7827 S Jay Rd

Clayton, OH 45383

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,169/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Milton-Union Exempted Village (rural): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #324 of 656 in OH (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 326 units permitted in Miami County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $195k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Clayton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.