3416 Red Hill Rd

Alma, AR 72921

$192,500D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $49/mo
• Annual: $593/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $53,900

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($593/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (16.9% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $160k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#223 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #111 of 238 in AR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alma Primary School (701 students, 47% FRL); Alma Middle School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #81 of 201 statewide, top 40%, 716 students, 44% FRL); Alma High School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #128 of 292 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Alma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.