3416 Red Hill Rd · Alma, AR 72921

$192,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1981 2.00 ac lot Est $322k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity with Instant Equity on 2 Acres! Unlock the potential of this partially renovated home situated on a beautiful 2-acre tract surrounded by stunning estates and picturesque farms. Major improvements have already been completed, including a new roof, HVAC system, hot water tank, windows, carport, electric, drywall installation, and the conversion of the garage into a spacious fourth bedroom with a laundry area. One of the two bathrooms has been completed, leaving the remaining finishes ready for your personal touch. The property also features a shop with electricity, providing excellent space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Whether you're an investor looking for you

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Carport
• Windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• HOT WATER TANK
• WINDOWS
• CARPORT
• DRYWALL INSTALLATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax annual amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Porch; Chain link front yard fence; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage; Walk-in closets; Two fireplaces (one in bedroom, one in family room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($593/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Alma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#223 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #111 of 238 in AR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alma Primary School (701 students, 47% FRL); Alma Middle School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #81 of 201 statewide, top 40%, 716 students, 44% FRL); Alma High School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #128 of 292 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,920 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,408
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1326 Orrick Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,595 (-6%)	2mo	$99,000	$62	68
4215 Lamb Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+8%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,093
• Equity at exit: $28,702

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,603
• Equity at exit: $16,644

Cash invested: $53,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72921

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,491/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $192,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,125
• Closing costs: $5,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $192,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $192,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,783
• − Property taxes: −$1,491
• − Insurance: −$962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,600
• Taxable loss: −$2,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$652
• After-tax cash flow: $1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alma School District
• NCES district ID: 0502250
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,566
• Composite: 30.34/100
• National rank: #6264
• State rank: #111 of 238 in AR

Livability — Alma

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #17089

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,827

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,108 people
• By 2030: 61,519 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 59,735 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 57,521 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 53,143 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 49,596 · -20.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 19.9% · R 78.1% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.0pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+49.9 2008: R+46.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.80%
• Current HPI: 249.3307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $192,500 WRVBOR

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,491 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.