1066 Shady Ln

Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$365,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built — · Land · Active · 392 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$1,277
• HOA: −$68
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-865/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (2.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $365k).
• It's been on market 392 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 392 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.