1066 Shady Ln · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$365,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Land · 391 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $243/sqft · 25% below area Est $485k · 25% under $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Construction has commenced. Let the magic begin! Beautiful 3 bedroom/ 3 Bath Villas at Rollover Bay Home w/options: loft, quartz counters, outside shower & 4" deck extension- Located steps from the beach, Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Grass Outdoor Game Area, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. Villas at Rollover Bay is slated to be the only community of it's type on the Texas Gulf Coast. This is the BASE PRICE for the 3 bed/3 bath floor plan offers 1,224 square feet of livable space, a usable loft option of 281 SF, ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Upgrade options available: Garage, Outside Shower, RV package, Quartz Kitchen Counters & Additonal Deck Space. Upgrade options are additional costs on top of the base price. Vacation Rentals are allowed.

Key facts

• Kids playground
• Pool deck
• Elevated pool

Tags

• ELEVATED POOL
• POOL DECK
• 2 STORY ENTERTAINMENT PAVILION
• OCEAN OBSERVATORY DECK
• KIDS PLAYGROUND
• GRASS OUTDOOR GAME AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (2.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $365k).
• Recommended offer: $321k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,793
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -24.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-63,222
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-58,877
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,475/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,126

Max offer price $354,571

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $54	+0% $-72	+5% $-198	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-231	+0% $-72	+5% $87	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $21	base $-72	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1062 Cedar Ln Unit 1466498P Port Bolivar, TX	4.0	2.0	1130	$3,936	$3.48	3d	1	0.10mi
998 Dolly St Unit 1223259P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,649	$2.02	0d	1	0.25mi
994 Dolly St Unit 1223247P Port Bolivar, TX	4.0	2.0	1291	$4,359	$3.38	0d	1	0.26mi
986 Dolly St Unit 1281079P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,930	$3.00	0d	1	0.28mi
975 Dolly St Unit 1364178P Gilchrist, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,570	$2.87	0d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $365,000 Active 383 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 378 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 371 DOM
16. 2025-05-25
    listed $365,000 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Construction has commenced. Let the magic begin! Beautiful 3 bedroom/ 3 Bath Villas at Rollover Bay Home w/options: loft, quartz counters, outside shower & 4" deck extension- Located steps from the beach, Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Grass Outdoor Game Area, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. Villas at Rollover Bay is slated to be the only community of it's type on the Texas Gulf Coast. This is the BASE PRICE for the 3 bed/3 bath floor plan offers 1,224 square feet of livable space, a usable loft option of 281 SF, ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Upgrade options available: Garage, Outside Shower, RV package, Quartz Kitchen Counters & Additonal Deck Space. Upgrade options are additional costs on top of the base price. Vacation Rentals are allowed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,475
• − Insurance: −$9,853
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,873
• − Management: −$3,873
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$6,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-25 Listed $365,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+58.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $463 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.