6480 Katherine #63

Simi Valley, CA 93063

$393,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,061
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $944/mo
• Annual: $11,332/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $110,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $393k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $944 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $393k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $381k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#456 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Simi Valley Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #170 of 517 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollow Hills Elementary (math 54% / reading 68%, grade B, #222 of 1,571 statewide, top 14%, 637 students, 38% FRL); Valley View Middle (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #152 of 498 statewide, top 31%, 1,140 students, 39% FRL); Simi Valley High (math 38% / reading 57%, grade D, #384 of 1,170 statewide, top 33%, 1,935 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $393k implies a 1412% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $110k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Simi Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.