1555 Merrill St #95

Twin Lakes, CA 95062

$199,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Built 1961 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $713/mo
• Annual: $8,562/yr
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,287 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Live Oak Elementary (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #431 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $199k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.