1555 Merrill St #95 · Twin Lakes, CA 95062

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1961 Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cottage at Shoreline Estates, a 55+ rent controlled community, harmonizes practical living with coastal charm. The interior offers a bright, inviting atmosphere thanks to fresh paint and thoughtful layout designed for flexibility whether you're downsizing, seeking a vacation escape, or pursuing a comfortable year-round residence by the sea. The inside laundry pairs with a dedicated storage shed to support organized living, while the low-maintenance exterior helps you spend more time enjoying the beach, market days, and social activities at the clubhouse and pool. Its proximity to Sunny Cove Beach and a thriving local scene makes it easy to enjoy a perfect balance of quiet evenings and lively days by the coast.

Key facts

• Inside laundry
• Built 1961
• Listed 11 days

Tags

• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• DEDICATED STORAGE SHED
• LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR
• PROXIMITY TO SUNNY COVE BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park home site on leased land
• Financial info: Space rent for parking: $533
• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Common utility room

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space 95 (tandem parking and guest/visitor parking); Two-car carport (minimum)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Leased land (park home site); Senior community (55+); Board approval and HOA rental restrictions apply; Pet number restrictions
• Construction: Living area approximately 460
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Built-in oven; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Dining bar and eat-in kitchen; Washer and dryer included
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,287 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Live Oak Elementary (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #431 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $199k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,740
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2355 Brommer #4	0.62mi	2/1.5 (+1)	480 (+4%)	3mo	$201,000	$419	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,025
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $40,503
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95062

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,538
• − Management: −$2,538
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $5,735
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $7,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Live Oak Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0621990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,519
• Composite: 45.3/100
• National rank: #5742
• State rank: #431 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Twin Lakes

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4287

Category grades

Amenities A Commute B Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twin Lakes, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,607
• Household income: $112,106
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1672.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1390.84%
• Current HPI: 319.0529
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-07 Listed $199,000 MLSListings
• 2009-02-23 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MLSListings
• 2009-01-31 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2009-01-01 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2008-10-31 Listed $79,500 MLSListings