3580 Celina Rd

Burkesville, KY 42717

$124,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-534/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $34,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-534/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (10.3% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #60 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland County Elementary School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 503 students, 80% FRL); Cumberland County Middle School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 206 students, 71% FRL); Cumberland County High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 295 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP.
• Cumberland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $124k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.