3580 Celina Rd · Burkesville, KY 42717

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1999 0.80 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently refreshed manufactured home on a nice 0.8 acre lot. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath is a great affordable option for anyone looking for proximity to the Cumberland River (1 mile to the ramp at Traces) or Dale Hollow Lake (5.4 miles to Mikes Landing at Sulphur Creek). Enjoy your time on the back porch overlooking Clover Creek. Property is improved with an asphalt drive and brand new storage shed. This property could serve as a family home or vacation rental. Lawn maintenance is included through September.

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Asphalt drive
• 0.8 acre lot

Tags

• 0.8 ACRE LOT
• PROXIMITY TO CUMBERLAND RIVER
• PROXIMITY TO DALE HOLLOW LAKE
• ASPHALT DRIVE
• BRAND NEW STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-534/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #60 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland County Elementary School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 503 students, 80% FRL); Cumberland County Middle School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 206 students, 71% FRL); Cumberland County High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 295 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $124k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,256 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-22,729
• Equity at exit: $18,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-23,088
• Equity at exit: $10,975

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42717

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $117,565

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-2	+0% $-44	+5% $-87	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-88	+0% $-44	+5% $-1	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-13	base $-44	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $124,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-04-09
    listed $129,000 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Recently refreshed manufactured home on a nice 0.8 acre lot. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath is a great affordable option for anyone looking for proximity to the Cumberland River (1 mile to the ramp at Traces) or Dale Hollow Lake (5.4 miles to Mikes Landing at Sulphur Creek). Enjoy your time on the back porch overlooking Clover Creek. Property is improved with an asphalt drive and brand new storage shed. This property could serve as a family home or vacation rental. Lawn maintenance is included through September.

20. 2025-11-21
    historical 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Nice investment opportunity near Dale Hollow Lake! This 3-bedroom/2 bathroom manufactured home is conveniently located off KY-61S and is only 6 miles from Sulphur Creek Resort. It sits on 0.8 acres and would be a great starter home, rental or lake getaway!

21. 2025-11-20
    soldstatus $52,000 Closed 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Nice investment opportunity near Dale Hollow Lake! This 3-bedroom/2 bathroom manufactured home is conveniently located off KY-61S and is only 6 miles from Sulphur Creek Resort. It sits on 0.8 acres and would be a great starter home, rental or lake getaway!

22. 2025-10-23
    status Pending 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Nice investment opportunity near Dale Hollow Lake! This 3-bedroom/2 bathroom manufactured home is conveniently located off KY-61S and is only 6 miles from Sulphur Creek Resort. It sits on 0.8 acres and would be a great starter home, rental or lake getaway!

23. 2025-07-08
    price $80,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Nice investment opportunity near Dale Hollow Lake! This 3-bedroom/2 bathroom manufactured home is conveniently located off KY-61S and is only 6 miles from Sulphur Creek Resort. It sits on 0.8 acres and would be a great starter home, rental or lake getaway!

24. 2025-05-20
    listed $100,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Nice investment opportunity near Dale Hollow Lake! This 3-bedroom/2 bathroom manufactured home is conveniently located off KY-61S and is only 6 miles from Sulphur Creek Resort. It sits on 0.8 acres and would be a great starter home, rental or lake getaway!

25. 2007-08-01
    soldstatus $34,900
26. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$1,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable loss: −$2,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County
• NCES district ID: 2101410
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $31,335
• Composite: 30.19/100
• National rank: #6313
• State rank: #60 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burkesville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #9252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,964

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,466 people
• By 2030: 6,223 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 5,692 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 5,161 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 4,011 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 2,968 · -54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.9) · D 14.0% · R 85.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: -48.6pp · 2024: -70.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.9 2020: R+68.3 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+56.7 2008: R+48.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.97%
• Current HPI: 191.8306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+360.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $129,000 UCMLS
• 2025-11-21 Delisted — UCMLS
• 2025-11-20 Sold (MLS) $52,000 UCMLS
• 2025-10-23 Pending — UCMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $80,000 UCMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listed $100,000 UCMLS
• 2007-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records