707 San Simeon Pl

Tatamy, PA 18040

$195,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$780
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,837/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (13.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#395 in PA, #3,601 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Easton Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #364 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shawnee El Sch (math 58% / reading 65%, grade B, #360 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 602 students, 100% FRL); Easton Area Ms (math 16% / reading 43%, grade F, #385 of 512 statewide, top 76%, 1,874 students, 100% FRL); Easton Area Hs (math 49% / reading 44%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 2,844 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 40% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Tatamy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.