707 San Simeon Pl · Tatamy, PA 18040

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2004 $114/sqft · 19% below area Est $240k · 19% under $780/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, single-level living in the highly desirable Jacob’s Farm 55+ community. This charming ranch home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and convenient 1-car garage. Designed for comfort and simplicity, the layout features spacious living areas, a large eat-in kitchen, private primary suite with full bath and a deck with retractable awning. With great bones and tons of potential, this home is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch. A little TLC will go a long way in transforming this property into a true gem. Enjoy all the benefits of a vibrant, low-maintenance community while creating a space that reflects your style. Don’t miss this opportunity to make

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Single level living
• Garage

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DECK WITH RETRACTABLE AWNING
• LOW MAINTENANCE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $780; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; 1,708 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Awning(s); Mobile home on property; Zoned 11GB

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Laminate; Resilient flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Family room on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (13.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Tatamy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#395 in PA, #3,601 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Easton Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #364 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shawnee El Sch (math 58% / reading 65%, grade B, #360 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 602 students, 100% FRL); Easton Area Ms (math 16% / reading 43%, grade F, #385 of 512 statewide, top 76%, 1,874 students, 100% FRL); Easton Area Hs (math 49% / reading 44%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 2,844 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 40% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,963 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,500
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -18.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Kykuit Pl	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$164	96
550 Biltmore Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,732 (+1%)	8mo	$280,000	$162	84
715 San Simeon Pl	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-2%)	18mo	$226,000	$135	82
719 Winterthur	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	24mo	$214,400	$126	78
720 Whitemarsh Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,595 (-7%)	11mo	$305,000	$191	77
677 Biltmore Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	23mo	$195,000	$114	76
678 Kykuit Pl	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,475 (-14%)	1mo	$240,500	$163	74
608 Biltmore	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,498 (-12%)	14mo	$208,000	$139	61
719 Kykuit Pl	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,452 (-15%)	22mo	$214,900	$148	55
600 Biltmore Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,508 (-12%)	23mo	$205,000	$136	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-40,780
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-45,760
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18040

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,866/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$780
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,792

Max offer price $167,963

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-98	+0% $-153	+5% $-208	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-256	+0% $-153	+5% $-50	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-103	base $-153	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Trailside Dr Easton, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$2,775	$2.59	4d	27	0.60mi
2465 Gillian Ln Easton, PA	3.0	2.5	2075	$2,300	$1.11	16d	1	1.33mi
1924 Alex Rd Easton, PA	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,600	$1.96	4d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $780 · $9,360/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $195,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-06
    listed $195,000 Active 712-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,866 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,866 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,866
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − HOA: −$9,360
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Easton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208850
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,390
• Composite: 33.46/100
• National rank: #5457
• State rank: #364 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tatamy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #3601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,162
• Population (ZIP): 17,183

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8% Black 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.10%
• Current HPI: 190.2081
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $195,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,866 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.