412 Stillwell Cir

East Syracuse, NY 13057

$289,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,085/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (7.2% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $269k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in NY, #81 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+.
• East Syracuse Minoa Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #379 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $290k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.