440 Church Ave

Oshkosh, WI 54901

$279,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,651 sqft · Built 1893 · MultiFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $828/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($828/yr) — positive. Per door: $34/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (6.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $261k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in WI, #574 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Oshkosh Area School District (urban): math 33% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #246 of 342 in WI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 652 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (333 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $280k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oshkosh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,611/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1484% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.