440 Church Ave · Oshkosh, WI 54901

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,651 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1893 4,791 sqft lot Est $228k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Lots of upgrades have been done to this nicely appointed duplex. One example is a newly poured basement floor. See the seller improvements sheet for additional information. All utilities are separate and are paid by the tenants. Current rents total $2890 per month. Located near downtown and UWO and across from the Winnebago County courthouse. Other Rm in unit 2 is a finished attic space/bedroom area.

Key facts

• Finished attic space
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1893

Tags

• NEWLY POURED BASEMENT FLOOR
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE
• LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Multi-family (2 units); Unit sizes: Unit 1 approx. 1,365 sqft; Unit 2 approx. 1,586 sqft; Inclusions: 2 ranges and 2 refrigerators; Exclusions: tenants' and seller's personal property

Exterior

• Parking: Outside parking
• Utilities: Municipal water; Municipal sewer
• Home design: Multi-family duplex; 1.5-story / bi-level building; Estimated total living area between 2,501 and 3,000 sqft; Lot under 1/2 acre (approx. 0.11 acre); Zoned for 2-family/duplex
• Construction: Finished below-grade area: none reported; Year built: see public records
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Unit 1 and Unit 2 include ranges and refrigerators (2 ranges, 2 refrigerators included)
• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms; Unit 2: 4 bedrooms (master approx. 13 x 11; second bedroom approx. 13 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 1 full bathroom; Unit 2: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Boiler with radiant heat; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Cable/satellite available
• Laundry & utility: Separate electric meters; Separate gas meters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($828/yr) — positive. Per door: $34/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oshkosh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in WI, #574 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Oshkosh Area School District (urban): math 33% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #246 of 342 in WI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 652 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (333 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,611/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1484% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $280k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $261,100 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,986
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 High Ave	0.18mi	4/4.0	2,599 (-2%)	18mo	$255,000	$98	65
610 W Irving Ave	0.17mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,472 (-7%)	12mo	$165,000	$67	65
115 E Parkway Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,426 (-8%)	4mo	$175,000	$72	64
724 Jackson St	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,383 (-10%)	9mo	$205,000	$86	62
111 Fulton Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,297 (-13%)	1mo	$202,500	$88	56
541 Mt Vernon St	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	3,008 (+14%)	4mo	$191,000	$63	49
407 E Irving Ave	0.59mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,370 (-11%)	2mo	$225,000	$95	48
316 Fulton Ave	0.57mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,496 (-6%)	13mo	$235,000	$94	48
107 Fulton Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,353 (-11%)	16mo	$175,000	$74	48
851 Division St	0.43mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,355 (-11%)	14mo	$200,000	$85	44
317 E Parkway Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,401 (-9%)	19mo	$282,000	$117	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-35,609
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,497
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54901

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,911/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,524

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 92%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$2,612
Total (2 units)			$2,611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Algoma Blvd Unit 1332436P Oshkosh, WI	3.0	1.5	2798	$3,092	$1.11	44d	1	0.46mi
904 W 8th Ave Oshkosh, WI	3.0	1.0	1759	$1,600	$0.91	13d	1	1.15mi
953 W 6th Ave Unit NA Oshkosh, WI	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,748	$0.97	21d	1	1.16mi
1113 Harney Ave Unit 1061625P Oshkosh, WI	3.0	2.0	1991	$3,154	$1.58	13d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 403-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $279,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,911 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,045 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,911
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$3,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$915
• After-tax cash flow: $1,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oshkosh Area School District
• NCES district ID: 5511190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,048
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6634
• State rank: #246 of 342 in WI

Livability — Oshkosh

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #574

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oshkosh, WI
• County: Winnebago County · 155,689 people
• City population: 81,810
• Metro: Oshkosh-Neenah, WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,294
• Household income: $61,794
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1484.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,480 people
• By 2030: 177,928 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 180,873 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 181,302 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 184,071 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 175,932 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 11.7pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+4.0 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+3.8 2008: D+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.12%
• Current HPI: 187.7253
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Oshkosh-Neenah, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+129.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $279,900 RANW
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,911 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.