128 Turtle Cove Trailway

Monticello, GA 31064

$297,650D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,959
• Tax + insurance: −$623
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,074/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $104,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $289k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 564 students, 60% FRL); Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.