128 Turtle Cove Trailway · Monticello, GA 31064

$297,650

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 9,583 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been waiting for the right home-the one that finally feels worth it-this is your moment to stop searching and start living. READY TO CLOSE. NEW CONSTRUCTION. Welcome to the highly sought-after, peaceful, amenity-rich community of Turtle Cove-where lifestyle and design come together effortlessly. From the moment you walk in, you're greeted by a bright, open-concept layout filled with natural sunlight, creating a warm and inviting space that's perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. The main level is thoughtfully designed with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, offering both durability and style. A guest bedroom with a full bath on the main floor provides flexibility

Key facts

• New construction
• Large island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GUEST BEDROOM WITH FULL BATH
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $297,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $373,572.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• Recommended offer: $289k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 564 students, 60% FRL); Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,720 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,572
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Turtle Cove Trailway	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,306 (0%)	1mo	$299,000	$130	99
76 Killdeer Ln Lot 34	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,306 (0%)	6mo	$290,000	$126	87
235 Waxwing Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,450 (+6%)	4mo	$369,000	$151	73
81 Hummingbird Dr	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,284 (-1%)	10mo	$295,000	$129	71
94 Bunting Ct	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,156 (-6%)	3mo	$350,000	$162	68
20 Egret Ct	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,252 (-2%)	13mo	$389,900	$173	63
14 Bluejay Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,156 (-6%)	13mo	$360,779	$167	59
340 Starling Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,411 (+5%)	1mo	$392,000	$163	57
811 Whippoorwill Rd	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+5%)	12mo	$389,000	$160	48
990 Whippoorwill Rd	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+5%)	14mo	$399,000	$164	46
141 Warbler Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (-10%)	9mo	$355,000	$171	45
185 Kingfisher Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,517 (+9%)	11mo	$345,000	$137	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $197,829
• Equity at exit: $336,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $587,194
• Equity at exit: $725,768

Cash invested: $104,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,959
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,604/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,312

Max offer price $360,627

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $40	+0% $-89	+5% $-219	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-216	+0% $-89	+5% $37	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $6	base $-89	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,393
• Closing costs: $11,207
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
682 E Mourning Dove Ct Monticello, GA	4.0	3.0	3332	$3,199	$0.96	11d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-31
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $297,650 New
4. 2025-10-30
   historical
5. 2025-08-22
   price $309,900
6. 2025-08-03
   listed $325,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 34% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,926
• − Property taxes: −$5,604
• − Insurance: −$1,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,071
• − Management: −$3,071
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$10,868
• Taxable loss: −$7,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #2229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $297,650 GAMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $309,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-03 Listed $325,900 GAMLS