425 Main St

Llewellyn Park, NJ 07052

$550,000F

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,972 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-1,247/mo
• Annual: $-14,961/yr
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.20%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Orange Public Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #230 of 472 in NJ (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,065 of 1,303 statewide, top 83%, 450 students, 67% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 431 statewide, top 50%, 526 students, 49% FRL); West Orange High School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #205 of 399 statewide, top 52%, 2,151 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 33% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $550k implies a 511% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Llewellyn Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?