425 Main St · Llewellyn Park, NJ 07052

$550,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1926 2,875 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two family home 1st floor LR 2 bedrooms Full bath, 2nd floor LR Family Room 2 bedrooms 1 Full bath there is also a Bonus 3rd floor unit with LR 1 bed 1 full bath and and kitchen. Not a Legal 3 family may be able to convert. Tenants are all Monthly so the new owner can re-negotiate the lease terms or have the property delivered vacant. Tenants pay utilities. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS BUYERS TO OBTAIN ALL TOWN CERTIFICATES AND REQUIREMENTS

Key facts

• 2,875 sq ft lot
• Listed 168 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: ERA/Suburb Realty Agency
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Residential income property; Multi-family

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 13 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Llewellyn Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Orange Public Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #230 of 472 in NJ (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,065 of 1,303 statewide, top 83%, 450 students, 67% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 431 statewide, top 50%, 526 students, 49% FRL); West Orange High School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #205 of 399 statewide, top 52%, 2,151 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 33% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $550k implies a 511% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,754 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.20%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-172,222
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-267,032
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07052

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,199 /mo · $14,385/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-1,247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,543

Max offer price $329,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-935	-5% $-1,091	+0% $-1,247	+5% $-1,402	+10% $-1,558
Rent	-10% $-1,560	-5% $-1,403	+0% $-1,247	+5% $-1,090	+10% $-934
Rate	-1.0pp $-970	-0.5pp $-1,107	base $-1,247	+0.5pp $-1,389	+1.0pp $-1,534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $550,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-03-10
    price $699,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Two family home 1st floor LR 2 bedrooms Full bath, 2nd floor LR Family Room 2 bedrooms 1 Full bath there is also a Bonus 3rd floor unit with LR 1 bed 1 full bath and and kitchen. Not a Legal 3 family may be able to convert. Tenants are all Monthly so the new owner can re-negotiate the lease terms or have the property delivered vacant. Tenants pay utilities. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS BUYERS TO OBTAIN ALL TOWN CERTIFICATES AND REQUIREMENTS

15. 2025-12-30
    listed $550,000 Active
16. 2025-12-17
    listed $550,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Two family home 1st floor LR 2 bedrooms Full bath, 2nd floor LR Family Room 2 bedrooms 1 Full bath there is also a Bonus 3rd floor unit with LR 1 bed 1 full bath and and kitchen. Not a Legal 3 family may be able to convert. Tenants are all Monthly so the new owner can re-negotiate the lease terms or have the property delivered vacant. Tenants pay utilities. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS BUYERS TO OBTAIN ALL TOWN CERTIFICATES AND REQUIREMENTS

17. 1986-05-27
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,385 · $1,199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,385 · $1,199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$14,385
• − Insurance: −$3,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,806
• − Management: −$3,806
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$24,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3417610
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $89,678
• Composite: 35.28/100
• National rank: #4971
• State rank: #230 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Llewellyn Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Essex County · 825,405 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 48,620
• Household income: $129,475
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1327.0

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 825,042 people
• By 2030: 834,010 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 846,221 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 850,047 · +3.0%
• By 2075: 837,009 · +1.5%
• By 2100: 784,345 · -4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.7% · R 26.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: 52.6pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+55.4 2016: D+56.4 2012: D+55.5 2008: D+52.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -505.19%
• Current HPI: 292.4666
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+676.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $699,000 GSMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $550,000 NJMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $550,000 GSMLS
• 1986-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,385 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.