221 Fair Park Dr

Foscoe, NC 28605

$149,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $376/mo
• Annual: $4,509/yr
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#363 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Watauga County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 178 in NC (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blowing Rock Elementary (math 69% / reading 74%, grade A-, #81 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 431 students, 19% FRL); Watauga High (math 76% / reading 74%, grade A-, #91 of 535 statewide, top 17%, 1,272 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Watauga County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 296 units permitted in Watauga County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Watauga County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 0.4% in Foscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.